Network Effects in Crypto Projects: Fueling Adoption and Value

Kajetan Olas

04 Mar 2024
Network Effects in Crypto Projects: Fueling Adoption and Value

The term "network effects" frequently surfaces as a factor underpinning the exponential growth of cryptocurrencies. But what exactly are network effects in crypto projects, and why are they so important? At its core, a network effect occurs when a product or service becomes more valuable as more people use it. This phenomenon is not exclusive to the digital age; it has influenced the adoption and success of technologies ranging from the telephone to the internet. However, in the context of cryptocurrency, network effects not only fuel adoption but are also directly correlated with market capitalization. This article delves into the mechanics of network effects in crypto and discusses just how much adoption influences projects’ value.

Measuring Network Effects in Crypto

One of the most widely recognized methods for measuring these effects is Metcalfe’s Law, which posits that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of its users. Studies have found that this law applies to blockchain networks particularly well. In practice, we measure user base (N) as the number of nodes or active addresses.

Case Studies: Bitcoin and Ethereum

To illustrate the practical application of Metcalfe’s Law in cryptocurrencies, let's examine Bitcoin and Ethereum, two of the most prominent blockchain networks.

  • Bitcoin: As the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has demonstrated a remarkable correlation between its network size and value. Historical data shows that periods of rapid growth in the number of active wallets are closely followed by increases in Bitcoin's market price. Pearson’s correlation coefficient between BTC price and a squared number of nodes is approximately 0.9. In the case of squared number of active addresses, it’s approximately 0.95. This pattern underscores just how important network effects are.
  • Ethereum: Ethereum's utility extends beyond mere financial transactions, encompassing smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps). This added functionality attracts a diverse user base, further amplifying its network effects. Pearson’s correlation coefficient takes similar values as in BTC case. 

Network Effects and Cryptocurrency Adoption

The adoption of cryptocurrency is significantly influenced by network effects, which not only enhance the value of the digital currency but also contribute to its widespread acceptance and use. As the network of users grows, the cryptocurrency becomes more useful and desirable, creating a virtuous cycle that attracts even more users. This is particularly evident in the context of payments and remittances, where the value of a cryptocurrency network increases with the number of individuals and institutions willing to accept and transact in the currency.

Enhancing Security and Trust

One of the critical ways network effects contribute to cryptocurrency adoption is by enhancing the security and trustworthiness of the network. Blockchain technology, the foundation of most cryptocurrencies, becomes more secure as more participants join the network. The decentralized nature of blockchain makes it increasingly difficult for malicious actors to compromise the network's integrity, thereby bolstering user confidence in the system. This enhanced security is a direct consequence of the network effects, as a larger network provides greater resistance against attacks. 

Impact on Liquidity and Market Depth

A larger user base means more transactions and, consequently, greater liquidity, making it easier for users to buy and sell without causing significant price fluctuations. This increased market depth attracts investors and traders, further fueling cryptocurrency adoption. That’s especially important for Dapps which release native tokens traded on DEXs like Uniswap. It’s common for teams to provide initial liquidity that fosters trading, but it’s much better when that liquidity is provided by users.

Fostering network effects techniques

Very strong correlation between the value of blockchain projects and their user base makes it clear that adoption is very important. So, how should projects foster the growth of their user base?

Airdrops

Airdrops are a very common (and relatively cheap) way to grow user base of a network in its beginnings. The way they work is the following: projects allocate a certain number of tokens (e.g. 1% of total supply) to people who engage with the project. For example, a project may announce that people who retweet and like their posts on X a certain number of times will get some tokens. Another type of engagement might be participating in testnet and providing feedback to founders. Airdrops are effective because even if only 5% of these attracted users will stay for long-term then it’s still a great return on investment.

Subsidized incentives

When the project is just starting it may be a good idea to allocate some capital towards higher incentives for early users. An example might be providing higher APY for stakers (like 10%, instead of 5%) for the first 6 months. While such subsidized incentives are good in the beginning they must end at some point. That’s because they’re unsustainable in the long term. An example of what can happen if unsustainable incentives last for a little too long is the Anchor Protocol’s case. Anchor hoped to attract a lot of users by providing 15% APY. In that sense it achieved success, but because it didn’t end the program in time, the protocol became unsolvable and crashed. Though while it lasted the network’s growth was truly exponential.

Vision Oriented Project

Probably the most sustainable and organic way to grow your user base is by showing users an inspiring vision associated with your project. This is about creating a protocol that in some way promises to change the world for the better. An example may be Cardano which acquired an enormous fanbase oriented around its mission statement. That was despite poor user experience in their beginnings. 

Challenges and Limitations

Despite the positive impact of network effects on cryptocurrency adoption and value, some notable challenges and limitations must be acknowledged.

Scalability Concerns

A primary challenge posed by network effects is scalability. As the network grows, the underlying blockchain technology must be able to handle an increasing number of transactions quickly and efficiently. However, many cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, have encountered difficulties scaling their networks to meet demand without compromising security or decentralization. This is the most important factor hindering adoption, since many users prefer to use a centralized payment system, just because it’s more efficient. For example, VISA can process 24k TPS, while BTC can process 7 TPS.

https://www.okx.com/learn/blockchain-trilemma-guide

Conclusion

While network effects are a powerful driver of cryptocurrency adoption and value, they also present significant scalability challenges that must be addressed. However, in the case of emerging projects, benefits coming from increased adoption outweigh the costs and it’s shown that the greatest factor influencing the value of these projects is their user base.

If you're looking for ways to foster the adoption of your DeFi project, please reach out to contact@nextrope.com. Our team is ready to help you create a strategy that will grow your user base and ensure long-term growth.

FAQ

What are network effects?

  • Network effects is a term describing a situation when the value of a network grows more than proportionally relative to the number of users.

How do network effects influence projects' value?

  • There is a very strong correlation between a squared number of active addresses/nodes and the market capitalization of projects.

How to foster adoption and occurrence of network effects within my project?

  • By building a community. This can be achieved through orienting protocol around an inspiring vision, airdrops, and subsidized incentives for users.

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Aethir Tokenomics – Case Study

Kajetan Olas

22 Nov 2024
Aethir Tokenomics – Case Study

Authors of the contents are not affiliated to the reviewed project in any way and none of the information presented should be taken as financial advice.

In this article we analyze tokenomics of Aethir - a project providing on-demand cloud compute resources for the AI, Gaming, and virtualized compute sectors.
Aethir aims to aggregate enterprise-grade GPUs from multiple providers into a DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network). Its competitive edge comes from utlizing the GPUs for very specific use-cases, such as low-latency rendering for online games.
Due to decentralized nature of its infrastructure Aethir can meet the demands of online-gaming in any region. This is especially important for some gamer-abundant regions in Asia with underdeveloped cloud infrastructure that causes high latency ("lags").
We will analyze Aethir's tokenomics, give our opinion on what was done well, and provide specific recommendations on how to improve it.

Evaluation Summary

Aethir Tokenomics Structure

The total supply of ATH tokens is capped at 42 billion ATH. This fixed cap provides a predictable supply environment, and the complete emissions schedule is listed here. As of November 2024 there are approximately 5.2 Billion ATH in circulation. In a year from now (November 2025), the circulating supply will almost triple, and will amount to approximately 15 Billion ATH. By November 2028, today's circulating supply will be diluted by around 86%.

From an investor standpoint the rational decision would be to stake their tokens and hope for rewards that will balance the inflation. Currently the estimated APR for 3-year staking is 195% and for 4-year staking APR is 261%. The rewards are paid out weekly. Furthermore, stakers can expect to get additional rewards from partnered AI projects.

Staking Incentives

Rewards are calculated based on the staking duration and staked amount. These factors are equally important and they linearly influence weekly rewards. This means that someone who stakes 100 ATH for 2 weeks will have the same weekly rewards as someone who stakes 200 ATH for 1 week. This mechanism greatly emphasizes long-term holding. That's because holding a token makes sense only if you go for long-term staking. E.g. a whale staking $200k with 1 week lockup. will have the same weekly rewards as person staking $1k with 4 year lockup. Furthermore the ATH staking rewards are fixed and divided among stakers. Therefore Increase of user base is likely to come with decrease in rewards.
We believe the main weak-point of Aethirs staking is the lack of equivalency between rewards paid out to the users and value generated for the protocol as a result of staking.

Token Distribution

The token distribution of $ATH is well designed and comes with long vesting time-frames. 18-month cliff and 36-moths subsequent linear vesting is applied to team's allocation. This is higher than industry standard and is a sign of long-term commitment.

  • Checkers and Compute Providers: 50%
  • Ecosystem: 15%
  • Team: 12.5%
  • Investors: 11.5%
  • Airdrop: 6%
  • Advisors: 5%

Aethir's airdrop is divided into 3 phases to ensure that only loyal users get rewarded. This mechanism is very-well thought and we rate it highly. It fosters high community engagement within the first months of the project and sets the ground for potentially giving more-control to the DAO.

Governance and Community-Led Development

Aethir’s governance model promotes community-led decision-making in a very practical way. Instead of rushing with creation of a DAO for PR and marketing purposes Aethir is trying to make it the right way. They support projects building on their infrastructure and regularly share updates with their community in the most professional manner.

We believe Aethir would benefit from implementing reputation boosted voting. An example of such system is described here. The core assumption is to abandon the simplistic: 1 token = 1 vote and go towards: Votes = tokens * reputation_based_multiplication_factor.

In the attached example, reputation_based_multiplication_factor rises exponentially with the number of standard deviations above norm, with regard to user's rating. For compute compute providers at Aethir, user's rating could be replaced by provider's uptime.

Perspectives for the future

While it's important to analyze aspects such as supply-side tokenomics, or governance, we must keep in mind that 95% of project's success depends on demand-side. In this regard the outlook for Aethir may be very bright. The project declares $36M annual reccuring revenue. Revenue like this is very rare in the web3 space. Many projects are not able to generate any revenue after succesfull ICO event, due to lack fo product-market-fit.

If you're looking to create a robust tokenomics model and go through institutional-grade testing please reach out to contact@nextrope.com. Our team is ready to help you with the token engineering process and ensure your project’s resilience in the long term.

Quadratic Voting in Web3

Kajetan Olas

04 Dec 2024
Quadratic Voting in Web3

Decentralized systems are reshaping how we interact, conduct transactions, and govern online communities. As Web3 continues to advance, the necessity for effective and fair voting mechanisms becomes apparent. Traditional voting systems, such as the one-token-one-vote model, often fall short in capturing the intensity of individual preferences, which can result in centralization. Quadratic Voting (QV) addresses this challenge by enabling individuals to express not only their choices but also the strength of their preferences.

In QV, voters are allocated a budget of credits that they can spend to cast votes on various issues. The cost of casting multiple votes on a single issue increases quadratically, meaning that each additional vote costs more than the last. This system allows for a more precise expression of preferences, as individuals can invest more heavily in issues they care deeply about while conserving credits on matters of lesser importance.

Understanding Quadratic Voting

Quadratic Voting (QV) is a voting system designed to capture not only the choices of individuals but also the strength of their preferences. In most DAO voting mechanisms, each person typically has one vote per token, which limits the ability to express how strongly they feel about a particular matter. Furthermore, QV limits the power of whales and founding team who typically have large token allocations. These problems are adressed by making the cost of each additional vote increase quadratically.

In QV, each voter is given a budget of credits or tokens that they can spend to cast votes on various issues. The key principle is that the cost to cast n votes on a single issue is proportional to the square of n. This quadratic cost function ensures that while voters can express stronger preferences, doing so requires a disproportionately higher expenditure of their voting credits. This mechanism discourages voters from concentrating all their influence on a single issue unless they feel very strongly about it. In the context of DAOs, it means that large holders will have a hard-time pushing through with a proposal if they'll try to do it on their own.

Practical Example

Consider a voter who has been allocated 25 voting credits to spend on several proposals. The voter has varying degrees of interest in three proposals: Proposal A, Proposal B, and Proposal C.

  • Proposal A: High interest.
  • Proposal B: Moderate interest.
  • Proposal C: Low interest.

The voter might allocate their credits as follows:

Proposal A:

  • Votes cast: 3
  • Cost: 9 delegated tokens

Proposal B:

  • Votes cast: 2
  • Cost: 4 delegated tokens

Proposal C:

  • Votes cast: 1
  • Cost: 1 delegated token

Total delegated tokens: 14
Remaining tokens: 11

With the remaining tokens, the voter can choose to allocate additional votes to the proposals based on their preferences or save for future proposals. If they feel particularly strong about Proposal A, they might decide to cast one more vote:

Additional vote on Proposal A:

  • New total votes: 4
  • New cost: 16 delegated tokens
  • Additional cost: 16−9 = 7 delegated tokens

Updated total delegated tokens: 14+7 = 21

Updated remaining tokens: 25−21 = 425 - 21 = 4

This additional vote on Proposal A costs 7 credits, significantly more than the previous vote, illustrating how the quadratic cost discourages excessive influence on a single issue without strong conviction.

Benefits of Implementing Quadratic Voting

Key Characteristics of the Quadratic Cost Function

  • Marginal Cost Increases Linearly: The marginal cost of each additional vote increases linearly. The cost difference between casting n and n−1 votes is 2n−1.
  • Total Cost Increases Quadratically: The total cost to cast multiple votes rises steeply, discouraging voters from concentrating too many votes on a single issue without significant reason.
  • Promotes Egalitarian Voting: Small voters are encouraged to participate, because relatively they have a much higher impact.

Advantages Over Traditional Voting Systems

Quadratic Voting offers several benefits compared to traditional one-person-one-vote systems:

  • Captures Preference Intensity: By allowing voters to express how strongly they feel about an issue, QV leads to outcomes that better reflect the collective welfare.
  • Reduces Majority Domination: The quadratic cost makes it costly for majority groups to overpower minority interests on every issue.
  • Encourages Honest Voting: Voters are incentivized to allocate votes in proportion to their true preferences, reducing manipulation.

By understanding the foundation of Quadratic Voting, stakeholders in Web3 communities can appreciate how this system supports more representative governance.

Conclusion

Quadratic voting is a novel voting system that may be used within DAOs to foster decentralization. The key idea is to make the cost of voting on a certain issue increase quadratically. The leading player that makes use of this mechanism is Optimism. If you're pondering about the design of your DAO, we highly recommend taking a look at their research on quadratic funding.

If you're looking to create a robust governance model and go through institutional-grade testing please reach out to contact@nextrope.com. Our team is ready to help you with the token engineering process and ensure that your DAO will stand out as a beacon of innovation and resilience in the long term.